“The crowded tumult of the city is something experienced everyday as I navigate my way to the office through a dense crowd that overflows from footpaths... Software engineers waiting at the bus stops, groups of women in saris on the way to their jobs, garment factories that line the road, men heading toward the under construction highway…Looking around I think if people are the engine of India’s growth, our economy has just begun to rev up.” The paragraph from Nandan Nilekani’s “Imagining India- Ideas for New Century” perfectly captures India’s demographic dilemma.
Demographic dividend, the term introduced by David Bloom refers to the rise in the rate of economic growth due to rising share of working age group in a population accompanied by presence of suitable economic policies that allow work force to be productively employed.
India, a country spread over 3,287,263 sq km is today the world’s second most populous country with a population of 115 crores growing at 1.548% per annum. With such a huge population, India’s human capital is fast emerging as the key course of its economic prosperity. However, the outlook on population has never been rosy. It was in the last decade that this concept came in limelight with 56.9% of the total population falling under the working class (as per the 2001 census) and youth accounting for 25-29% of the total population. Yet another survey reveals that in 2020 an average Indian will be 29 years old, as compared to 45 in Europe! The logistics make it evident that India has a very young and dynamic population at its disposal.
But in Indian context the entire concept of demographic dividend sounds more mythical than realistic. Looking at the situation with a critical eye one feels that the boon might turn into a bane if employment opportunities are not created to accommodate the labor force. We continue to witness how the educated but unemployed youth in our country take to drugs and heinous crimes resulting in a life worse than death. If this is the fate of the young, the educated and the capable Indians, India’s dream to transform the myth into reality will never materialize.
With the labor force growing at the rate of 2.5% against employment generation rate of 2.3%, the widening gulf between the employable and the employed is a matter of great concern. Rubbing salt on the wounds is the latest Human Development Index report which ranks India 132 out of 182 nations reflecting the deplorable state of masses. We have schools but no trained teachers, we have universities but no job placements! The big question raised by many is that for how long can India continue to piggy back on the idea of population as asset than a liability without altering its “business-as-usual” approach? Government investment in vocational training and employment generation schemes becomes indispensible to make the most of this “once in a life time opportunity.”
What is comforting is that fact that India has the resources and the potential to be the most powerful nation of the world, but its inability to accommodate the young and the restless can transform the demographic dividend into demographic disaster. The choice is ours!
